Who is going to win the US mid-term elections? | The Economist


America holds a presidential
election every four years, but votes for congress every two. The midterm elections,
which happen halfway through a presidential
term are typically seen as a referendum on how
the president’s doing and determine how much
power he will or won’t have to pass legislation during
the second half of his term. Every two years, the United States elects all 435 members of the
House of Representatives and 1/3 of the Senate. For Donald Trump, there’s
even more at stake than there is for previous
presidents in his position. Not only will the fate of
any laws he might wanna pass hang in the balance,
but any investigations that Democrats have been
itching to launch into alleged collusion with
Russia, his business dealings even before he took
office, his tax returns, and ultimately, the specter
of potential impeachment depend entirely on who controls the House of Representatives
over the next two years. So all 435 seats in the
House of Representatives are up for election every two years. However, the vast majority
of them, we already know what’s gonna happen,
not just in this cycle, but two and four years into the future. There’s a few more
races that are, sort of, close to 50/50 this
year than you would see in a typical cycle, but even then, it’s definitely less than
a quarter of the House that is realistically up for grabs. We thought it would be a good idea to invest the time and effort
to build a statistical model that would enable us to combine
all the different sources of data available, to come up
with a more accurate forecast than you could ever hope to get just by putting your finger in the wind. In national level polling,
when respondents are asked which party they plan to vote
for for congress this fall, the Democrats lead by over
eight percentage points. If the election were a
fair fight, that would be more than enough to guarantee
a comfortable victory. However, the district lines for
the House of Representatives are drawn in a way that
vastly favors the Republicans. There are two reasons for that. The first is gerrymandering. The last time the
district lines were drawn, which was in 2012, Republicans controlled the vast majority of state
legislatures and governorships, and therefore, they were able to draw the vast majority of the district lines. The second reason is what’s
called sorting, or clustering. Over the past couple decades,
Americans have increasingly packed themselves into like-minded areas, with Democrats clustering in the cities and Republicans spreading
through the countryside. As a result, there are fewer districts with large Democratic majorities and a greater number of districts with smaller Republican majorities. When you combine those two factors, it suggests the Democrats need to win the national vote by as much
as seven percentage points just to have about a 50/50
chance of taking the majority in the House of Representatives. Our model considers a combination of national and local level factors. We look at national level polling for which party respondents
want to control congress, we look at local level district polling, we look at presidential approval ratings, we look at fundraising, we
look at candidate ideology, we look at candidate experience, we look at special election
or bi-election results, pretty much everything we can think of, and then we throw it all in a soup and spin up the computer and ask it to tell us what’s gonna happen. Our model’s best guess is
that the Democrats will win 229 seats, 11 more than
is needed for a majority. They have clear, comfortable
leads in almost enough seats to guarantee a win in the polls, and then there’s a long
tail of 10, 20, 30 seats where they’re highly competitive. However, that advantage
is far from sufficient to guarantee a victory. Even a small national polling error in the Republicans’ favor of,
say, two percentage points, could be sufficient for the GOP to hold onto the lower chamber.

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  1. DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT FOR LIFE! KEEP AMERICA GREAT!

  2. Hillary Clinton was projected as a 98.5% favourite to win the presidency on election night, based on polling. How can anyone trust polls? I don’t know of a single person I’ve ever met who participated in a “poll”.

  3. Trumps pussy grab remarks to little Billy Bush was to reassure the little guy. You gorgeous women don't realise how terrifying you can be to a testosterone fuelled guy.

  4. Mister editor, here is flaw in your prediction model. You take data from this person and data from that person then you feed it into your computer without ever having left your office to actually meet and talk to a real voter. It didn't work the last time and it's not working this time. There is a real simple statistical method which I have explained numerous times. Make yourself a giant chart and put as many names of political commentators as you can. Every time one is wrong, put a red mark. Every time one is right, put a black mark. Do not confuse agreeing or disagreeing with right or wrong. Separate yourself from your ideology, religion, beliefs, sexual preference, etc, and get scientific about this. I did it years ago and came up with Ann Coulter as being the most statistically accurate predictor. She said Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination and she was absolutely right. She said that Trump was the only Republican that could beat Hillary(right again). Jesus said that there will always be war, poverty and injustice in the world so seek for truth and only truth, folks.

  5. So what you’re telling me is that the Republican Party is corrupt? And as soon as they Democrats win the majority and they redraw the lines, we’ll find out how corrupt they are too? I am so shocked. Really, my draw dropped.

  6. The following are four famous quotes that really do sum up the voting scam:

    "Presidents aren't elected, they're Selected." Franklin D. Roosevelt.

    "We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." Aesop

    "It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes that counts." Joseph Stalin

    "If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." Mark Twain.

    So I like to refer to the voting day in November as "November fool's day." :O)

  7. Models show Democrats taking 229 seats but even a 2 point error in favor of Republicans could change the landscape. Very interesting.

    The problem with computer models is that they stand or fall on the accuracy of the data. One forgotten variable or oversight completely ruins the models prediction. Whether it’s predicting flu season, climate change, or hurricane forecasts. Early voter turnout and voter enthusiasm is very high this year and Republicans have been closing the enthusiasm gap over the last 2 months. I see a 218 to 217 final result.

  8. You can stuff those polls where the sun dont shine, republicans will keep the house, and gain in the senate.  if im right i get your job and pension ?

  9. when we see how democrats have been smearing Kavenaugh with false accusers, this highlight that they have become too radical and extremist to give them the power and they are capable of anything to get the power! too dangerous for democracy

  10. Wait Until Late Tuesday Night When it's Finalized That Trump Holds On To Both The House and Senate, and Picks Up Governors Along The Way. The Liberal News Media Will All Be Crying on TV Again, and The Antifa Snowflakes Will Be Causing Violence and Crying In The Streets !  I hope The Cops Have To Fuck-Up Them Up To Teach Them a Lesson.

  11. Election fraud is the key to victory over the UN, banksters, deep state, illegal immigrant voters and the criminal democrats.. All of the cabal forces are involved in election fraud, therefore, like the human trafficking, we have their Achilles Heel before us. Now all we need to do is seize the election ballots, arrest anyone who tries or does destroy them immediately, and have a nationwide recount, sorting out the fraudulent ballots. Then detain, prosecute, incarcerate, seize all assets. If a corrupt Judge interferes, arrest, detain….  simply ignore counting destroyed democrat ballots as not verifiable.

  12. Voting AGAINST incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York….. Voting PRO-TRUMP… for: CHELE FARLEY (Republican)

  13. The dark circles under your eyes say more about what's going to happen to the Democrats than anything else you said in code to justify it.

  14. the only polling that works ….is no poll at all. people lie, or they don't answer the freaking phone. how you gonna find out for sure how people are gonna vote? you can't. just wait til election day you dimwits.

  15. Guys can you stop with the crappy comments about him looking tired, the report was one of the few on here that was a little more even straight forward and fact based for once. Newscasts would normally use better lighting and make up for video production, they've been lazy taking him to a side office with crappy lighting and just told him to stand there – I don't think the production team did him any favours with this one, but based on the engagement response rate and views I want this man as a staple for the Economist, he's keeping it real and I think we're all tired of news agencies talking to themselves. And everyone in journalism looks like this with a deadline, welcome to the real world people 🙂

  16. The Economist is pure fiction. This idiot admitted that his so-called model is not robust enough if there is only a 2% variation in polling.

  17. If the economist as left as the BBC and the guardian, then the Republicans will win, the British are living in cloud cuckoo land as far as judging the voters mood. I see England I see Birmingham as the future and they don't, so much for their projections.

  18. Looking into my crystal ball I see a mob of far left lunatics screaming into the night time sky. The Republicans will sweep the mid-terms.

  19. District lines ? Seriously, dude? Demonrats have been doing that in urban areas for decades…oh, that and using dead peoples voting registrations. While I am at it, why dont you take a nap and grab a hot shower before appearing on camara. Knobhead.

  20. I will laugh so hard if the Democrats end up 1 seat short of a majority. (I am not even from the USA, nor am I a big Trump fan) But ever since Trump became a president the politics is so much fun.

  21. Read this article before you vote.

    THIS IS THE REASON WHY TRUMP'S DEPLORABLE FOLLOWERS BELIEVE ALL HIS LIES, STUPIDITY, ETC. THEY LOVE HIS RACISM, HIS HATE, HIS INCITING TO VIOLENCE, HIS MISOGYNY, HIS BIGOTRY, ETC.

    TRUMP IS THEIR "CONFEDERATE PRESIDENT !!"'

    Please, share!

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/04/the-american-civil-war-didnt-end-and-trump-is-a-confederate-president

  22. The problem is they didn’t factor in Project Veritas exposing the democrats for the liars they are. These guys are no better at polling then choosing presenters. Republican with 219.

  23. Some people have dark eyes like that. Mine are like that too. Or it could be medication. Pain meds made my eyes dark too

  24. He erred in one aspect. Conservatives leave areas where Liberals roost and ruin, then congregate in areas with like-minded individuals. We still have "rights of association"…If Liberals want to congregate in cities and ruin them, then that's on them. But they'll continue to whine and find ways to strip and control conservatives because that's what they do. Unfortunate for them, we not folding anymore…

  25. NOTICE AT THE END HE USE THE ARTICLE FOR "THEM"
    REFERING TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. AS OPPOSED TO US , THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
    TALK ABOUT UNBIASED.
    POLLS WERE WRONG IN 2016
    AND THEY WILL BE WRONG AGAIN THIS TIME AROUND.
    THE JEWS WILL NOT REPLACE US.

  26. This kid has good information, but it is still leaning to Republicans. He is Wrong, wait till tomorrow afternoon. I predict Blue like we have not seen in 50 years…

  27. This noob said at least one honest thing. That democrats have mostly moved to big cities and republicans to spread out country areas.

    Exactly, the left go where there's free handouts and welfare, the right go where they can be left alone more as they take care of themselves.

  28. PRAYING Jesus Christ, Jesus show yourself mighty to your people, Lord there seems to be no way out, no way to fix things, no ways of solution, but Jesus you are the solution, you are the truth, you are the love and forgiveness, you are the author and finisher of all great things. Jesus if you can raise a nation up and take it down in a day, then Jesus can you not heal our nation and our people.Yes you can,we praise the name of Jesus. Jesus, quickly reveal yourself to us, that is best for each one of us, touch us the only place that you know and can touch, Jesus can you not minister individually to each person, the only way that they can be ministered to,. Jesus are you not greater than any and all calamity and evil, Jesus where a man sees no way out, your spirit testifies that you Jesus, you are the only way out. Jesus you are the author and finisher of all things, great and small. Jesus help us receive your perfect and perfecting love and forgiveness of the cross. Jesus you told me that if we could fully receive and understand the love and forgiveness of the cross, we would be transformed as a new spirit, a useful witness for Christ Jesus. Jesus we pray that you answer this prayer, that we receive THE FULL PORTION,of your perfect love and forgiveness of Jesus Christ.Jesus we praise your perfect love and forgiveness. Jesus we pray for personal and professional revival Lord Jesus not only does it have to happen in our heart, it has to happen in our family and in our workplace,,, Lord bring us to where your people are, there's no greater ministry then in our own families in our own workplace, Jesus show us the way to your fullness. Jesus you said, to pray for the greatest gift to prophesy to strengthen, encourage and comfort our people, to help raise them up. Jesus we repent of godless chatter, a lack of faith. Jesus we need the faith the size of a mustard seed to plant our faith at the altar,Jesus you will grow our faith. Jesus help us be the great communicators of your love and forgiveness, your faithfulness. Jesus Christ we pray that you come quickly, we need you and praise your mighty name, Jesus our Lord and Savior. Jesus come quickly, Jesus we cry out for repentant heart and spirit, seeking the perfect love and forgiveness, found only in Christ Jesus. Jesus is not the simple gospel, can be as simple as, the perfect and perfecting love and forgiveness of Jesus Christ. Jesus is this not available to all people saved and unsaved. Jesus we pray for this great awakening, correction, direction pointing to Christ Jesus, as Lord and Savior. The name of Jesus is above all names, the name of Jesus identifies the God we serve, the God that can save, forgive us of our sins, and love us into eternity now and forever. Jesus cannot the zeal of the Lord accomplish this great revival, harvest this great harvest and free our people, from captivity of the world and the evil one. Jesus not all is lost, but always gained, we hear that this is the greatest time and harvest, that the world will ever see. Jesus, Jesus, quickly come. Jesus we are standing in victory and not in defeat, because the victory was won on the cross let us praise your great name the name above all names, Christ Jesus our Savior and Lord, amen and amen. I AMen

  29. This guy looks like he needs a nap. 😭💤💤

    *and not bc of his low key dem supportive undertone.. 🤔… but… bc them bags under his eyes along with his "idgaf and didn't wanna do this video anyway" word stumble during the last 10 seconds of this video, makes me tired just by watching him.

    -he looks like he could do a damn good job on my taxes thoooo 😏👍🏼

  30. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the United States will face the largest trade deficit in history and the highest unemployment rate in the United States

  31. Surely and I know I'm being naive but if the president has done something illegal it shouldn't make any difference whose elected. Also is he really suggesting the Republicans would gerrymander to get votes.

  32. I could be wrong, but my impression is that he really, really hopes Trump loses. The way he listed every thing the Dems want to do to Trump, and why Trump NEEDED this win.

  33. American polling is wack. Period. American politics are silly and childish in the extreme.

    Also…use some make up. It can do wonders.

  34. US Assholes: We haven't found any signs of Russian interventions. That means they have to be using more suphisticated methods 😀 😀 😀

  35. You work your fucken tits off till 9.45pm, straight after work you're at a bar for drinks with corporate buddies, perhaps a few hours of some serious blow action, by 2am a couple of the best whores in Manhattan are sucking your balls in different directions. Then its a couple of hours sleep, show up at work and the boss goes 'kid, you got a presentation'. How prepared would any of us look?

  36. The republicans won.
    the democrats may have won back the house, but the GOP has won a RINO-proof majority in the senate.
    The GOP now has a firewall that can reject everything the democratic controlled house tries to do.
    Overall, the GOP is better off than it was during the previous congress and the democrats are worse off.
    The GOP essentially has complete control over which bills make it to the oval office.

  37. DAN ROSENHECK
    DATA EDITOR
    THE ECONOMIST
    GREAT
    DR.
    DATA
    ANALYSIS.
    I DO APPRECIATE IT
    SO AS EVERYONE
    IN OUR DATA TEAM !🎙️🎤📯🎻🥁🎺

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