Polling and Election 2016: HU Office Hours with Craig Burnett

this was a strange election we saw a lot of things we have never seen before there are things that have been said in that I didn’t think could be said American politics there was a lot of pulling up to the to the election this last Tuesday and there’s a big question out there which is how the polls get this so wrong and that’s sort of an interesting one because it’s not clear that they did get it wrong it’s so much as it’s unclear exactly where we are with regard to polling and we also have an election that that that produced a result that there was at least somewhat surprising for people and so it’s not clear that the pollsters would have been able to capture this accurately but everything was done correctly scientific polling was followed and the question that’s always been bubbling around where we’re at in 2016 in terms of public opinion research is what exactly are the poles capturing who are they getting what’s the response rate and is it representative and if anything the results that we’ve now learned from 2016 is that it has more questions as to where the future of public opinion polling is going to be in the next cycle and the cycle after that it’s unclear what Donald Trump is going to do I there there’s been a lot of really smart people who have who have been very very wrong about this and to be able to say what is going to happen in terms of policy is unclear here’s what we do know Donald Trump is a Republican who has put out a number of policy some of them very controversial and standing behind him he has a Senate Majority and House Majority that’s actually quite large he’s going to be able to do something I don’t know what is focus will be there’s certainly a lot of will in both chambers of Congress to see something like a repeal or the total rethink of Obamacare the biggest question mark is foreign policy what is America’s alliances what are their commitments going to look like going forward that’s probably be the area that Donald Trump is the most unilateral control it’s also the one who’s been very outspoken about uh but the degree to which any of this will come two passes is is trying to predict what Donald Trump is going to do or what he really wants to do and unfortunately for for me and everybody in the prediction business in the country business the only person who really knows that is Donald Trump what I see is being the the important areas of coming out of this is how different the campaign was this is a campaign that isn’t that produced a winner that did not follow any of the normal conventions of campaigning and how he is a different candidate who is able to use a narrative to his advantage based on a starting point of a hundred percent or more or less name recognition and that that’s a phenomenal outcome and it should not be discounted about how tremendous that is and how different of an election this has been the other point for me is is these potential tectonic shifts in the landscape of what American public voting looks like are we going to see a permanent change in the alignment of working-class voters for the Republican Party is the republican party going to become the isolationist anti free-trade Party that Donald Trump claims that he is that’s a huge sea change in the way American politics is done all we can do now speculate but it is worth speculating because it is a fundamental change away from where we’ve been the past and if we actually go this direction the alignment of parties how the policies are going to produce we haven’t quite seen the end of it yet

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