New Polls: Bernie UP, Buttigieg DOWN


So there was a period early last week where
we had some new 2020 democratic for democratic primary polls and who did, judge was up quite
a bit as high as nearly 12%. And we were wondering, is this going to stick
or is it temporary? The people who to judge peak last week, we
also saw last week in those early, early last week polls that Bernie Sanders was down at
about the same time, all the way down to about 15% nationally, which was Bernie’s lowest
in months. And we were wondering is this going to stick? Is this for real? And then we had no new polls for about a week. We now have two new ones and they appear to
be on the same page and that page is one that says that may or Pete’s pop to close to 12%
nationally was temporary. He’s backed down several points to an average
of nine polling eight and nine in the last two polls from Monmouth and Politico morning
consult. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, and to a lesser
extent, Elizabeth Warren have recovered some of their losses. Bernie climbed from 15 to about 17 over the
last week, but the last two polls actually have Bernie at 21 and 22 respectively. Putting him in second place nationally ahead
of Elizabeth Warren. Warren also gaining a little bit in her recent
average polling in third place in both new polls. And meanwhile Joe Biden continues to fluctuate
between 26 and 30 polling, 26 in the Monmouth poll and 30 in the Politico morning consult
poll. Now these are national numbers and they are
not hugely surprising. Mayor, Pete’s pop seemed sort of isolated. It didn’t seem likely to sustain. Now with Camilla Harris removed, we are seeing
where her three percentage points are sort of being distributed, but it’s almost mid
December, which means we have to be looking more and more at those first caucuses and
primaries, which are Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by Nevada and South Carolina, so
let’s do that and only in some do. We have recent polling and Iowa booted. Judge was way up last month, but there’s a
new poll out today which has him back down to third place, no longer leading. That’s not surprising. He’s down nationally. It makes sense. He might be down in Iowa as well. Biden and Bernie are fighting for first place
in Iowa, in New Hampshire. We also have a new poll out today. Buddha judge has dropped from 22 to 18 makes
sense, but still technically in first place, 18 to 17 over Biden, but certainly within
the margin of error in Nevada. We don’t have polling since the first half
of November. At that point, Biden was well ahead of both
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who were roughly tied for second place, but we need
new polling there. And then in South Carolina, again, no new
pollings since November 17th. Biden was well ahead there with Elizabeth
Warren and Bernie fighting for second place, but a relatively distant second. So right now we really need some new state
polling in some of these early States. We’re only about a month and a half from the
first votes in Iowa. Pete booted judges no longer ahead. There were about two and a half months from
our first votes in New Hampshire. A mayor Pete has dropped there and is tied
for first place rather than leading. And meanwhile we’ve lost Camila Harris. She’s ended her campaign. A Tulsi Gabbert is pulling 1%. She’s actually pulling 0% in two recent polls. She’s decided to skip the debate, uh, later
this month. We’ll talk about that a little bit later. Uh, she hasn’t qualified for that debate anyway,
but she’s skipping it regardless. And we are going to follow the polling. We’ll hopefully have some new early state
polling for you early next week and more national polls as we did have a lull there of almost
a, uh, seven to 10 days or so. And the race has continued to adjust. So now that we’ve gotten polling out of the
way, let’s talk about the sixth democratic debate coming up next week.

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