First 2020 Democratic Debate Lineups | QT Politics


NBC and the DNC have announced the lineups
for the first round of Democratic Debates. The debates are set for June 26th and 27th. Each night will feature 10 candidates, vying
for a chance to deliver their message to the American people, and Democratic voters. Hi, I’m Alec Baldwin, and I can do impersonations
of people other than Trump, you know. Wednesday night will include Elizabeth Warren,
Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Casto, Bill de Blasio,
John Delaney, Jay Inslee, and Tim Ryan. Thursday night will feature Joe Biden, Bernie
Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, Marriane Williamson,
John Hickenlooper, Eric Swalwell, and Michael Bennet. So, while the draw was apparently random,
and I have no reason to doubt that, the distribution of major candidates is not exactly even. Of the currently top-polling candidates, four
of them (Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg and Kamala) are all on the second night; while the first
debate will pretty much be Elizabeth Warren sitting at the kids table. The advantages and disadvantages of the lineups
for each individual candidate is of course, very much up for debate, but I’ll share my
thoughts and predictions in this video. But I want to hear from you guys, so let me
know in the comments section what you think of the line ups, Who are the biggest winners? And Who are the biggest losers? (New Mahler track: totally lit, fire emoji,
fire emoji, fire emoji) Okay, so to start out, let me reiterate that
all of my opinions on this topic are very much up for debate, and I’m totally open to
changing my mind on a lot of this, so I look forward to a good discussion in the comments
section. There’s also a few matters of fact that aren’t
clear, but could drastically change my analysis. For example, if each candidate were to be
given equal time, that would change my assessment, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that,
in the interest of maximizing viewership, NBC is going to allow a little more time for
more popular, more interesting candidates, and leave the unpopular, more forgettable
faces asking… Where’s my time? I’m also going to make certain assumptions
about debate skills. A lot of these candidates are relatively untested
in this area, and obviously that has to be a matter of opinion, anyway. So, forgive the bias—I’m just going to tell
you what I think, you’re more than welcome to d isagree and attempt to change my mind—again,
I’m open to doing that. That said, let’s start by talking about Night
One: June 26th. While there are certainly smaller candidates
in Night Two as well, Night One is very obviously less packed with heavy hitters. The clearest exception being Elizabeth Warren,
who is currently surging in the polls, a strong third place behind Biden and Sanders according
to RCP. And by the way, let me just take a second—not
to brag about defending Warren when her campaign launch looked rather weak—but to shove it
in the faces of Harry Enten and SE Cupp who argued that her campaign was DOA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99ioEit_V2A&t=124s What now, Cupp? What now? Anyway, Warren’s placement as the only top
5 candidate at the kids table has been seen by some as a win, others as a loss. As one Politico writer wrote, “Warren was left out of the debate featuring
most of the other top-polling candidates — an unlucky draw, according to many Democratic
strategists. “But NBC News’ decision to run her debate
on the first night, when viewership is expected to be high no matter who is participating,
is a consolation prize for the surging Massachusetts senator.” Believe it or not, I agree with Politico here. I do think we’ll likely see a larger audience
at the second debate, but the far more important factor is that, unless there’s a major shift
in polls, Warren will very likely be the star of Night One, as the most popular candidate
there by far. Uncrowded by other popular candidates, she’ll
likely get more time to talk, and for Warren, that’s a very good thing. In my view, Warren isn’t a very flashy candidate. She’s not great at sound bites, or charming
an audience with a witty turn of phrase. Trying to get a bump in the polls with limited
time may not be her strong suit. But as, certainly one of the most policy-focused
candidates, with numerous policies to talk about in detail, the extra time she will be
likely afforded will likely be a strong benefit. By the same token, candidates who are not
so strong on detailed policy concerns might have serious trouble going head-to-head with
Warren. Thus, Buttigieg and Biden probably benefit
from being able to avoid her this time out, while Beto, who is no doubt working hard to
regain some of the magic he captured in his senate race against Ted Cruz, could receive
the final nail in his campaign’s coffin if he steps toe-to-toe with her. For other middle-of-the road candidates, the
match up against Warren might give them the opportunity to regain lost ground. Booker, Castro and Klobuchar may not be my
favorite candidates in the race, but they’re knowledgable about policy. Like Warren, having the opportunity to speak
a bit more will likely give them a chance to gain attention for their campaigns that
have more recently been over shadowed. Tulsi Gabbard may have a great opportunity
in this debate as well. While she’s not the most experienced politician
in the race, I take her to be one of the more charismatic candidates in the race. She’s likely to stand out in a field that
does not include Buttigieg, Harris or Yang. Her policy positions also sound a lot better
when she gets proper time to explain. While in a crowded field, she might not have
the opportunity to properly explain why she didn’t back the Green New Deal—now she’s
likely to explain the very real green policies she has pushed for in the past. She’s also more likely have ample time to
bring up her views on regime change foreign policy, or Julian Assange—issues where she
is likely to resonate with progressive voters, who currently are putting most of their support
behind Bernie or Warren. Let’s move on to Night Two. Almost by definition, all the positives for
Warren seem to be problems for Bernie, as they are very likely going after many of the
same types of voters—policy-focused progressives. Another downside for Bernie is the fact that,
like Warren, he’s great when has a chance to explain his policies, and how he’s going
to pay for them, as well as debunk some of the trashier attacks that have been levelled
against him. But I expect the biggest loser from Night
Two to be Joe Biden. He is most vulnerable to lose votes to other
center-ish, establishment politicians. The two strongest contenders in this regard
are Buttigieg and Harris, and both will be right there, potentially ready to take him
on. This debate will be a great opportunity for
Harris or Buttigieg, one they’re not likely to pass up. Other likely losers from the matchup draw
are the minor candidates sharing the stage with four of the big five. So, Bennet, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper and Swalwell
are all likely to leave the stage polling even lower—if that’s even mathematically
possible. But Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang might
manage to benefit from the arrangement. Both of these candidates tend to stand out
for one issue, and one issue only. For Williamson, it’s reparations, and for
Yang, it’s of course, it’s the freedom dividend. Focusing on a single issue is a great strategy
for small candidates to stand out, and for these two, they were given just the debate
line up required to maximize its effectiveness. To be honest, I don’t see a real path for
Williamson to actually find her way to even the middle of the field, but Yang’s another
beast. The NBC debate stage may offer him the opportunity
to bring his message—already popular online—to a wider, and, well, older crowd. So, in my view, the biggest winners from the
match ups are likely to be Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Tulsi Gabbard,
Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson and Cory Booker. The biggest losers are likely to be Joe Biden,
Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, John Hickenlooper, and Eric
Swalwell. Actually, there are some folks who benefit
even less from these match ups. Namely, the candidates who will not make the
debates. Of the 23 candidates the New York Times lists
as running, three of them, Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, and Steve Bullock will be the only
ones not to appear. And, there’s at least one more, Mike Gravel,
who the New York Times didn’t even to bother to list amongst the candidates running as
recently as June 14th. By the way, Gravel claims he’s still running. But when you look at this short list of just
four candidates being singled out for dismissal, it kind of makes you rethink the question… Who are the biggest losers? Thanks for watching this video, guys. Big shout out to the patrons, Jack Stokes,
Questiontimefanact2020, Dekuro, Torge Kummerow, Luis, Victor Holmberg, Benjamin Koontz and
Stroden. Also, apologies for not having uploaded in
a while. I got sick, and then I had to go on a trip,
but I really appreciate you guys sticking around, and I’m excited to get back into it. So let me know what you want me to talk about
next in the comments and I’ll see you there!

About the author

Comments

  1. Bernie is going to recreate the seen from rogue one where Vader slaughters rebels in that small hallway while the rebels attempt to escape. The purpose of this metaphor is to explain that, like Vader, Bernie will literally wipe the floor.

  2. I've got news for you. There's someone at that "kid's table" that you'll be referring to as Madam President real soon, and it sure as hell isn't Hiawatha.

  3. Biggest Winners:
    1. Warren – With her recent surge, Warren must have the goal of coming off as part of a three horse race. In her relatively weak field she should be able to dismantle her opponents and look like the star of the show. The two things that she did not want were a very crowded field, and Buttigeig. Either would have stifilled her star-like rise, but she didn't get either. Furthermore, many who watch the first debate will have chosen it because its the first debate, meaning they have likely followed less of what has happened before; she should pick up most of their support. She should be one happy Native American.
    2. Buttigeig – Buttigeig has often been the center of attention for fewer people, and among those who know him he does very well. However he has failed to reach everyone and has, largely as a result, not been able to fully cement himself as a serious candidate. He needed to be at the A-table, and he is.
    3. Booker – There are two reasons why Booker wins here. For one, when playing with two many big candidates, he often comes off as desperate for the spotlight. So, he will be glad to not have to fight for it. Secondly, the first debate will likely see more voters who have not been following the DNC so much, as those who have will mostly lean towards watching the second one. Generally, Booker does worse with voters who do a lot of research, and end up annoyed at him for relatively conservative economic views.

    Biggest Losers:
    1. Beto O'rorke – He continue to look like he is a child playing at the big boys table, and will be found out by Warren for not being a true progressive.
    2. Castro – Because he is running for VP, Castro needs name recognition, not necessarily a fewer set of people to love him. The way to do that would be to be in the second night. Furthermore, he probably wants to be on stage with some of his perspective candidates. If they have been with him more on stage, they may be more inclined to pick him.

    3. Klobuchar – Like so many of those on the first night, she might be seen like she is trying to get a spot at the big kids table, and has just been unable to. She is not particularly likable so what she would want to do is go on the offensive in the debate. However in the first debate, with weaker candidates, that strategy will be less effective.
    Note: these are only looking at the top 10 candidates

  4. All these comments are either pro Gabbard or pro Yang. Even Bernie support seems to be sagging. Don’t make the nominee another George McGovern. We need somebody who can carry the middle. That doesn’t mean Joe Biden by the way.

  5. Are you fucking kidding me?!? Bernie is one of the biggest beneficiaries by going-up against – and embarrassing the fuck out of – Joe Biden. Dude…

  6. Booker, Castro, and Beto are the sleeper candidates for night 1 imo, and for night 2, Buttigieg, Yang, Harris, for night 2. I endorsed Biden in my citywide campaign but now feel it was hasty. I could endorse Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Castro, Yang, or Warren. Yang I really like but have 2 major issues with him, both related to what I see as rights.

  7. As a result of this first round of debates, the lesser known, more moderate/centrist leaning candidates like Amy Klobuchar, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, and Michael Bennet MIGHT gain a momentary bump in the polls if they effectively contrast themselves against the more progressive candidates (e.g. Warren and Sanders) and consistently emphasize the successes of their approach/policies — taking into account their successful bipartisan efforts, as well. But come September, that support will dissipate, return, and/or find its way to Biden, Buttigieg, and/or Harris, as the field will experience a reduction of at least 4-7 candidates due to the qualifiers/requirements of the second round of debates.

  8. Ben Gleib is also running! I don’t ever see anyone mention that. He has some good policy positions laid out on his website. I think it would really benefit the democratic field and the debates in general is there was a smart, witty, and likable comedian on stage

  9. What do I think of the matchups? I think we are going to get screwed again. There are so many candidates which means there are going to be too many camps. The DC shills and establishment hates Bernie Sanders. They're gonna undermine him again in favor of Biden and we are just going to split up further between moderates/corporate dems and democratic socialists/progressives. The trump base isnt shrinking. Look at his rallies! They're packed to the rafters.

  10. Buttigieg landing on the same night as Bernie and Biden is massive. I’m very much looking forward to that.

  11. Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro, and Cory Booker are all the same person but a different race. They all say the same things. “I’m for good things and against bad things.” Nothing they say has any substance

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  13. Day 1: Warren puts on a clinic, Beto disappoints, Tulsi surprises, Castro and Inslee shine. The rest will be forgotten.
    Day 2: Bernie wins. Biden looks dumb as he is. Kamala will outshine Biden. Pete will be boring and full of rhetoric. Yang will impress. Williamson will egg much needed attention and the rest will be forgotten.

  14. I think Kamala Harris is going to get a lot more traction, I don't know how much but I could see her rising in the poles purely from exposure

  15. The star for Wednesday night's debate will absolutely be Tulsi Gabbard! Thursday's winner will clearly be Bernie! For this I have zero doubt.

    Joe Biden's numbers will drop hard after his inevitable foot and mouth disease takes place and because of Tulsi's cool calm way of speaking with details of her own will make Warren look mediocre.

    All the other candidates are establishment losers of various types and are ultimately irrelevant.

  16. New Rules: Love your country, Love your neighbors, Love your families and do the right thing by Voting for Yang into the White House in 2020.

  17. Yang is the biggest winner from this lineup. There's going to be way more views that night which is good for him because it allow him to introduce himself to a larger audience

  18. So, what I know about these candidates;

    Biden: (pro) Very well known and represents Obama era stability (con) old and touchy scandal
    Bernie: (pro) respected and popular (con) old and considered to be far left
    Warren: (pro) popular policies and well known (con) lacks soundbites and native American heritage scandal
    Pete: (pro) impressive resume and articulate (con) inexperienced and unknown policies
    Yang: (pro) focused strong appealing policy and well spoken (con) relatively unknown and inexperienced
    Kamala Harris: (pro) known and has good soundbites (con) unknown policywise and considered to be corporate dem
    Brooker: (pro) known and soundbites (con) unknown policies and considered to be corporate Democrat
    Gabbard: (pro) single defining popular pacifist policy and steadfast (con) relatively unknown

    I dont know much about the rest of the candidates and I am a political junkie. So that in itself is their biggest con but anyone care to fill me in?

  19. I would love to see Bernie and Yang put Biden in his place.
    The rest in the second debate are irrelevant to me, honestly..

  20. It's actually a real shame Gravel isn't there. One of the most knowledgeable protesters against the war economy, he would elevate the debates for everyone.

  21. Bernie is gonna slam the fake progressives in the field. Tulsi will shine on foreign policy, and Mike Gravel is awesome.

  22. Biden is a loser, his logo is like Hillary's losing one, he is a dumb cocky old motherfucker that's arrogant as fuck and out of touch. How can anyone vote for him after he told a room packed of rich donors that "no-ones standard of living is going to change". I am a democrat but if any buffoonery goes on with that motherfucker and delegates and I will proudly vote for Trump. The party must be destroyed at that point. I plan to vote for Warren.

  23. Bernie is actually losing the progressive younger voting base to buttigieg, biden, and warren, so idk how many younger progressives he'll attract, no matter how much they care abt policy

  24. Nice piece. One note: you conveyed Marianne Williamson was a one issue candidate. Please spend more time listening to her. She covers all the bases and then some!

  25. Watch Simpson episode lol 😂 Lisa Simpson is Elizabeth Warren but first night she wins and second night Bernie Biden will probably mess up say something that people won't like

  26. I love Yang, Bernie, and Buttigeig.
    But it's kind of sad how people are so clueless about Elizabeth Warren, her dad was a janitor, she was a Harvard professor for most of her life, and her policies seem not only super progressive, but also realistic. In no way is she Hillary 2.0 or an establishment candidate in the way Biden is. Along with Yang, I think she's among the smartest in this race and deserves more from us progressives on the web.

  27. Yang is the biggest winner. He gets his message heard by most of the highest polling candidates and his ideas will have to at least partly be adopted by the winner since he now has that voice

  28. I see Mayor Pete as a huge winner. Every time he gets in front of a camera, more people like him. Getting the bigger audience night is a bonus, and I see him stealing from Biden since most people respect Biden on his name and not much else

  29. I honestly feel like Gabbard has the most opportunity in her debate, I feel like she has some of the most comprehensive methods to achieve her goals and having time to debate how we should execute the many shared goals of these candidates should give her a prominent edge, on top of that I feel Gabbard and Warren share a deep respect for one another and that while they will no doubt highlight how they differ from one another I still see them collectively cracking down on the other candidates on that stage. The first night, may be "The kids table" in terms of over all polls, but the level of support and approval for these candidates in their respective electorate is very strong, so it will be a battle of Charisma, especially against O'Rourke and Gabbard

  30. Pete is really getting popular a lot of people think he will make a great president like a JFK Type of President . But Trump will most likely get reelected in 2020…

  31. Warren & Butigieg better step up their game, otherwise the so-called "progressives" will fall for whatever Comrade Bernie Sanders or Kamala Harris is shovelling.

    Also, why the media isn't giving Seth Moulton a chance?

  32. I'm from Boston and have been watching Warren for decades. And Warren is a terrible debater; Warren is much better at giving speeches or at committees where the person testifying can't attack her. Look up Warren's debates on YouTube; they are the most cringeworthy videos of any politician on the planet. Biden will win the debate night because Biden's sole goal is to run out the clock and debate format helps him; at least 4 or 5 candidates will ignore Biden wasting time with long answers helping Biden finish the debate quicker without too much focus on him. Plus the MSNBC hosts are going to make sure Bernie and Yang have no opportunity to focus on Biden by giving Biden breathing room whenever it looks like he is failing on stage. You guys are all delusional thinking MSNBC will run a fair debate.
    During 2016 Wikileaks showed email of; MSNBC, the DNC and the Hillary campaign coordinating attacks on Bernie weeks before a debate where they were supposed to be impartial. What changed since then? Nothing.

  33. The 2020 elections are going to challenging if we bring up bernie or biden in the way of a lot of people on the right hate them while also hating trump. They may have the mindset that they survived 4 years with Trump, maybe they can do 4 more instead of electing a guy running off Obama's legacy or a guy they're sincerely scared of having power. I think it's best we bring up Pete, so many conservatives I know have said they like him and wouldn't mind having him as president. We need to find someone that we like, but will also seem like a viable candidate to the republicans when we get to the 2020 election.

  34. Only person who is not a complete nut case on this panel is Joe Biden. Unless Trump is stupid enough to declare war on Iran none of them will win

  35. Yang is going to win easy on night 2. Pete is going to poll lower because he is not strong on any policies

  36. Andrew Yang! Everyone here should at least check him out and before the debates, he's awesome! #yang2020

  37. Yang is an eccentric that will collapse immediately within the office. Like trump, but far less frightening to behold.

  38. Well, the good thing about debates is that good performances can create major candidates! I think Tulsi is the best available, and she’s shown herself to be a really strong speaker, so the debate could really help her!

  39. Beto is like that dad who is trying to show how cool he is to is son’s friends by jumping on their skateboard or taking about memes.

  40. If Tulsi and Warren don’t attack each there and decide to tag team the centrist candidates I think they will both get a boost. Warren is lacking in Foreign policy and Tulsi needs name recognition so they can definitely work together and take advantage of the others strength.

  41. Question Time produces excellent political analysis videos! Well done (as usual). I have shared the video to a growing Bernie group on Facebook that has 1,200 members, and have encouraged the members to watch, share, like, and subscribe to your channel. Here is the group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/BernieSWAG/

  42. Don't think Tulsi is a kid's table. Her votes once combined with Bernie's will be enough to defeat anyone. She will likely procure the swing votes to overcome the openly corrupt superdelegates leading into the DNC convention..

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