Elizabeth Warren Building a Lead


welcome to the show. Let’s get right into it. I’ve been waiting since the third democratic
debate last Thursday to get some post debate polling yesterday early. We got one post debate poll but a one is just
one alas and I wanted to wait until we had at least a second post debate poll and we
now have that so we’re going to be able to look at them in detail. Um, let’s sort of refresh the backstory. The backstory of course being that basically
since even before he formally announced his candidacy, I think it was in April, former
vice president Joe Biden has been leading the polls. We’ve seen Bernie Sanders in second place
for quite some time, but one of the storylines of polling for the last several months has
been that as Joe Biden sort of drops off from what was a round a 44 ish percent high at
one point months ago. It Has Been Elizabeth Warren who has been
sort of steadily picking up one to one and a half points every single month with Bernie
Sanders basically remaining in this second place spot. And that has been shaken up. Now I think at this point we have to say that
there is a different paradigm, which is that the momentum has shifted behind Elizabeth
Warren. I can’t think of another candidate who is
even remotely in this thing who has the momentum of Elizabeth Warren right now. So let’s take a look first at what the polls
look like in general. You’re, you’ll notice if you’re watching along
with me, the Green Line at the top going above 40% several months ago is Joe Biden and Joe
Biden has had his ups and downs. Now settling at an average of 27 in recent
polls and still in first place for now. The second line on this graph has been Bernie
Sanders. And as you can see, Bernie Sanders, uh, steadily
in second place for many, many months. Although you have seen a sort of convergence
of the brown line, which is Elizabeth Warren, who is polling right around 6% months ago,
slowly but steadily climbing, climbing, climbing, and now actually jumping into second place. Statistically in an average of recent polls
ahead of Bernie Sanders, 18.3 to 16.3 this is of course an average of recent polls. Now some important caveats, 18.3 versus 16.3
is not some massive Gulf. We could get one more post third debate poll
and this could completely reverse itself and Bernie Sanders could be exactly tied with
Warren or a head. These are general numbers that give us a sense
of the momentum. Now even more important arguably in terms
of the number of polls, if you look right now at the last 10 poles or the last 12 poles
or the last 14 poles, what you will see is that in half of them Bernie Sanders is in
second place and half of them Elizabeth Warren is in second place. A recency is weighted slightly more in these
averages of recent pollings. And there is one particular recent poll in
which Elizabeth Warren is solidly in second place. That’s where this average comes from. So now that we’ve seen this trend line of
Elizabeth Warren climbing with Bernie Sanders, sort of holding steady, and again, please
don’t shoot the Messenger. I hope that we’re beyond the point of making
personal attacks on me merely for reporting to you what it is that the polls say. As many of you know, I am a Bernie Warren
Guy. I think that there are upsides to both of
them. I think that together they are a very strong
progressive sort of duo in the Democratic primary. This is, we’re just talking about the polls. Don’t kill the Messenger. Okay, and by the way, if you’re going to write
to me and say the polls are only polling old people on landlines, we debunked that multiple
times. That’s not true. Let’s really keep the conversation productive
rather than resorting to this stuff. So we have to post debate data points. Right now, the debate was last Thursday. We have two polls that were conducted after
that debate. The first is the politico morning consult
poll. This is the poll in which Bernie Sanders is
still in second place. Joe Biden 32 Bernie Sanders, 20 Elizabeth
Warren, 18 Bernie and Warren statistically tied, but Bernie Sanders I had 20 to 18. You’ll also notice that we still have seen
no changes anywhere else to suggest that anybody other than Biden, Sanders and Warren even
remotely have a shot at this thing. Kamala Harris, despite some people on my Twitter
telling me she obviously won the debate, nothing happening. She’s still at 6%. Pete booted judge at five Beto maybe gaining
a little bit up to 4% a booker and Yang both at three in club a char a too. So, um, that is one of the two post debate
polls. This one has a statistical tie between Bernie
and Warren with Bernie ahead by two. The second post debate poll that we have is
an NBC News Wall Street Journal poll and this is the one that has Elizabeth Warren very
solidly in second place, 25 to Bernie Sanders, 14 with Biden still in first place with 31
now I do find it difficult to believe that Bernie Sanders is polling only 14% nationally
given everything else that we’ve seen recently. But, and again, I’m just the Messenger. I’m just the analyst. I like Bernie I, it sucks that I have to do
these disclaimers, but they do help to mitigate a little bit of the crazy messages I get. There are actually now several recent polls
which have Bernie near 14 the hill last week had him at 15 the economist had him at 16
Reuters had them at 16 and after the debate, the third debate last week, I actually got
a ton of emails from people saying, David, I like Bernie, but I think that he’s done,
and some attributing it to the stagnant poll numbers relative to Elizabeth Warren’s momentum. A lot of people emailing me saying, you know,
Bernie certainly didn’t help himself with his voice being horse for the first half of
the debate combined with Elizabeth Warren getting to do rebuttals before Bernie almost
every time since their views were very similar in terms of the content of their rebuttals. Bernie came off as if he was just saying,
me too to Warren merely because they went to her first for rebuttals, but more people
than we’ve had in the last six months. Contacting me saying Bernie is done and and
I hope that that’s not the case. I don’t believe Bernie has done from any objective
point of view at this point in time, but anybody who’s looking at the polling has to realize
that the momentum is with Elizabeth Warren and if you look at a recent polls, if you
look at the same polls over the last four months, you will notice that Joe Biden has
on average lost a little bit. Bernie Sanders is roughly even to have lost
a little bit and Elizabeth Warren has just been steadily gaining one-to-one and a half
points a month. So a momentum undoubtedly with Elizabeth Warren. Now the conversation I want to have with you
soon is about Bernie versus Warren. Putting aside our personal feelings about
things like who do we like better personality wise, putting aside even everything but thinking
objective Lee about the pragmatics of their platform. There is the idea which I’m reading about
more and more that while Elizabeth Warren is certainly more moderate than Bernie Sanders,
even though particularly domestically, their policies are similar. I’m starting to see more and more starting
to see more and more a opinions that Elizabeth Warren may be more effective as president
in that her ideas are more likely to be able to be made effective via law policy or executive
order, then those of Bernie Sanders. Now that’s a very general statement. I think if we really want to deal with that
seriously, we have to look at, okay, let’s look at healthcare, Bernie versus Warren. Why specifically if we are making the case
that Warren’s plan is more likely to be made a reality than Bernie’s, why is it that we’re
saying that when it comes to inequality, what specifically about Elizabeth Warren’s plan
versus Bernie’s is more likely to become a reality? So the question is even if we are more progressive,
let’s say, and we find Bernie to be more progressive than Warren and I believe in a marginal sense
he is, is there a way in which effective progress may be higher with Elizabeth Warren because
she may be more likely to get, you know, a few Republicans on board or whatever the case
may be. I am merely asking the question, I am not
telling you that that’s the case. It’s a pretty classic pragmatism versus idealism
conversation. But sometimes when people say idealism, there’s
like a negative connotation attached to it or some kind of dismissive element. I love Bernie’s ideas. So when I say idealism, what I mean is the
ideas are great ideas and completely not controversial in many parts of the world that seemed to
have things figured out in northern Europe and elsewhere. It’s merely a practical question and we’re
going to be dealing with this soon. But before I deal with it, I want to hear
from you about it. Um, let me know your thoughts on that in terms
of the practicality and potential for, for really affecting change with President Bernie
versus President Warren.

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Comments

  1. Doesn't matter, she's great except one thing. One thing I can't over look. She is willing to take donations from anyone. Including the typical Corporations. No thanks, I can't stop it, but I sure as hell don't have to vote for it. May as just keep doing what we're doing.

  2. All these polls still mean very little at this point. When voting begins, this race will likely turn into a Warren v Sanders contest. Biden will go nowhere, and the only question with him is when he will drop out. Yang and Gabbard are the only genuine wild cards: One or both could surprise the Establishment with a strong showing once the voting begins. All the others have no chance.

  3. Supposedly if Biden drops most of his votes will go to Bernie, which would put him ahead. If enough young people voted he would definitely win (they wont). If bernie loses and Warren wins that's ok. Shell bow and take the easy middle ground and accomplish almost nothing. Then another right winger will come around. But maybe Aoc will be ready to be president.

  4. SORRY I AM DONE WITH CAREER POLITICIANS!!!! They are all dirty, it is just how the game is played. Andrew Yang, the only one who has not taken dirty money!!!!

  5. These polls are all ran by billionaires with 0 checks on them. The faith in them is ridiculous. It is about as smart as trusting voting machines that you can't check. Or oil companies to tell the truth about global warming. Or cigarette companies to tell you about lung cancer. Or insurance companies to tell you the outcome of Medicare for all on the economy.

    How many Biden supporters do you really know? There is certainly almost none on YouTube, Facebook or Twitter. They are outnumbered 500 to 1. It can't be 500 to 1 lack enthusiasm ratio and be winning. It just can't.

    Search for Biden friendly posts. They are hard to find.

  6. Thanks for the ekg graph i would've stuck with second graph that was way more understanding. You say polling works yet trump won the last election and now look at where America is. You country used to stand for leaders of the free world now I'm sorry to say is a joke. Trump during election was caught saying when your famous you can grab any women by pussy and other stupid shit. Anyone of those things used to be an election killer. Yet polling said Hillary was going to win, but who can win when you have the electoral college. I sure hope the Democrats have an electoral college to help your polling

  7. I don’t believe these polls! This the establishments last shot at Bernie. Warren is a political coward and a paper tiger. She’s a combination of hillary and obama and I don’t want it. And I also believe the people putting Bernie down are not Bernie supporters but people who are trying to pull us apart. Let’s remember they said old hillary has a 99% chance of beating trump 😅. And I won’t be voting for the FAKE INJUN

  8. i dont care warren, YANGGANG2020, warren and bernie would be decent candidates of yang wouldnt be around, people stop cheering for those "lesser" candidates 1000 a month is unbeatable, fucking use your brain!

  9. It’s essentially a 3 way tie w Biden w a bit of a lead according to polls. Well see how things look in February. Remember Bernie was supposed to lose MI by 20 and ended up winning. Polls are just that, polls. Not votes.

    Appreciate the video David!

  10. I like both Warren and Bernie. I think I slightly prefer Bernie, but I agree that Warren is more likely to be able to get things done, and openly calling himself a Democratic Socialist is going to cost Bernie in the general election Where Trump will use that to whip up irrational fear from ignorance.

    In the end whoever has the biggest chance at beating Biden, then Trump has my vote.
    On that note I am still shocked at how much support Biden has, given his real lack of message, and growing amount of mental slips. Then again I was always and still am surprised at how many people continue to support Trump, and he is a much worse person in every way.

  11. I simply can’t accept that Bernie would only poll about 14% nationally. These polls are bullshit imo and should not become a discouraging distraction. Just teach as much people as you know about Bernie’s campaign and contribute. We’ll then see how it turns out.

    I don’t trust the polls and neither should you

  12. I've NEVER BEEN POLLED, but I contribute to Bernie Sanders campaign, monthly.
    Ensure your Voter Registration (& everyone you know) has not been purged!!!!
    https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/
    VOTE IN YOUR STATE PRIMARIES!!!!

  13. It feel like i heard it earlier when people says i don't like Warren but i prefer her to Biden. Wasn't it the same with Hillary and Trump? 😀

  14. These two polls are so far apart, one (or both) of them are divorced from reality. NBC and WSJ have both shown an open hostility to Bernie Sanders. My money is on the NBC/WSJ numbers being complete BS. Corporate interests, for whatever reason have clearly decided to push Warren and "cancel" Bernie. Maybe they feel she will be more amenable to their interests. Maybe they think she will be easier to beat. (I fear that may be true but am confident that either will beat Trump). Let's wait for a few more polls before we pronounce any building momentum. David knows better than this.

  15. Yo DP I have 2 issues regarding poll and question 9a… first off neither of the polls add up to 100%. I know that happens but I get 97% in column “B” and 90 % in column “A”. My greater issue is that it says of these 18 candidates but clearly lists 20. Please address kind regards

  16. I just want all those single digit losers to drop out so that when either bernie or warren drops their supporters can only go to the other. Biden is the real threat still.

  17. My Prediction – Warren will win nomination, Biden will lose it.
    Here is Why — Warren is excellent at defining problems, defining solutions, and giving a clear vision of where she wants America to go.
    IMO – Hilary lost because she had no vision, nor any idea of how or what she was going to to as president. I have asked people who voted for Hilary to give me Hilary's position on several things, and they never could. That was a problem.
    When you listen to Sen. Warren for 5 minutes, you know what she stands for and what she will fight for.
    Back to Biden – Biden is always vague about what he is for or against. He always couches his positions in words that give him wiggle room. AND, he does wiggle.
    For instance, is he for or against Health Care for All??? Depends on how you read what he says. His position seems to shift a bit one way or another depending on when and who is asking.
    Warren?? Her answer is same no matter where, no matter who.

    Because of this, I expect Warren to keep rising in the polls. Biden will lose most of the early primaries, but win enough to stay in the race. The Big question is, "How good will Bernie do?, and will he split the Progressive vote??"

  18. You sound like you're working with TYT in trying to make like Warren have some real momentum these polls don't mean a thing the Fox poll that came out put Bernie in second place and Warren and 3rd. The real measurement is donors meaning put your money where your mouth is. Donors mean people will actually support Bernie because they did more than just answered some questions over the phone and I know there are not that many people willing to answer question over the phone and answer a number they don't recognize it's just common sense this is why they couldn't figure out why Trump won polling is just not effective. I don't know what TYT let you in on but you are killing your brand like them hope you received enough money. Just because you sound like a robot doesn't mean you know anything .

  19. Bernie is definitely the change we need and I feel like people may be a little scared of such a drastic change. They choose Warren because she's change without too much change.

    Americans are so used to the neoliberal/neoconservative elitist rapacious capitalist zero sum game cesspool that we live in that a president Bernie Sanders may be threatening because it's so much change so fast. People need to take a step back and look at the big picture and what's at stake.

  20. Glad on the last bit u covered, something I’ve definitely wondered about. Although they are very similar, warren definitely seems softer on the minds of the “unwoke” for lack of a better term.

  21. I prefer Bernie over everyone else. But Warren is 1000000000000x times better then Biden. And if it comes down to ill switch to Warren to beat Biden.

  22. I don't think that anyone who is a Bernie supporter should switch to Warren because she is the more "realistic" choice in terms of who can get legislation passed. Their platforms are almost identical in terms of policy therefore it becomes more about the person and not the policy. Which I think has simular parallels to the "electability" argument. Where people think we should put up Joe Biden as the nominee because he's more likely to win the general election due to his moderate politics. In my opinion, if Bernie can't pass his legislation Warren won't be able to pass hers either. I think Warren is more likely to allow congress to gut her legislation where Bernie will fight tooth and nail for his. All that said, keep it simple and vote for who you want to be president and what happens happens, and if it doesn't go your way atleast you tried.

  23. I just don't understand why you would choose Warren over Bernie, as a progressive. Her policies are just weaker versions of his.

  24. the movement of Bernie sanders and his supporters is what will make policy possible, he will cause way more progressives to win than warren will

  25. Bill Maher likes Klovishar's chances.
    Trump would love to run against Warren, he has experience humiliating women. It's not about policy, it's about name calling and keeping them off balance.
    Bernie can crush Trump but he needs smarter management around him. There many videos of Bernie giving interviews where the sound is bad.
    I'm a huge Bernie fan but I can't listen to those videos. It's the same with several of the rallies and then at the debate he was hoarse.
    Why the f' can't his management team make sure this stuff goes more smoothly?
    If Warren gets elected she will lack the personal charisma needed to overcome Republicans and Democrat corporate centrists, so her polices will be moot.

  26. Let’s all keep in mind the way polls are conducted. They’re meant to favor older voters and not adequately reflect the populous. I’m not attempting to discredit the data, but I truly believe that Sanders’ will have the largest differential between polling expectations and actual turnout.

  27. That big crunch of Sanders voters going to Biden is painful to see. He's not going to help those people, he's not going to help anyone who actually needs help.

  28. The bottoms line, if Bernie wins, that means we will have also won many more down ticket candidates as well, thus, if we want to truly make change, it’s Bernie or bust. Elizabeth is taking corporate PAC money and will be corrupted just like Obama.

  29. I call BS. Here's a real poll: Bernie has 222K YouTube subscribers. Trump 190K, Yang 92K, Warren 10K, Biden 8K. Bernie has 7.5M Facebook followers. Trump 24M, Warren 3.3M, Biden 1.4M, Yang 170K. #BernNotice #BernTheSwamp #BernBabyBern #BernieMania #BerninDownTheHouse #BetterWithBernie #Bernami #Bernado #Bernquake #Bernsoon #Bernstorm #Bernieverse #UniversalHealthCare #UniversalEducation #ClimateChange #SocioEconomicJustice #PeopleOverProfit #OccupyTheWhiteHouse #99Percent #LivingWage #TaxTheRich #PoliticalRevolution #NotForSale #DemocraticSocialism #BerninForChange #CivilRights #HumanSecurity #EnvironmentalSustainability #VoteBlueNoMatterWho

  30. Warren may come on top for the same reasons the Bernie bros hate her. He wants a movement from the outside not considering Congress and Senate. Bros love that. Whereas Warren stated she wants a movement from the outside plus one from inside. Bros hate that but it makes more sense. I do however think bros are getting a little cultish like trumpsters. Made for a good but very devisive fight. I say that cause they also say I'll vote for trump if not Bernie so I can see people wanting to shut him down.

  31. "I'm just the messenger" (who selectively puts forth certain parts of the data and anecdotes in order to construct an influential narrative).

  32. Fk you cherry picking polls, i can do that too, new poll out, fox news has Bernie over Warren by 4 points. Fox news has the best polling in the country

  33. After Biden drops some points i hope Bernie picks up some momentum. Warren is the only one of the top three that Trump can easily beat, so having her in the race is bad news.

  34. National polls are essentially worthless. State by state matters waaaaaay more. Especially in early primary states, where Bernie is doing phenomenally well.

  35. I feel bad for you David you gotta tell progressives that Bernie is losing and they ain’t taking that to well. Bernie is best candidate policy wise but he needs to tell his story so we can understand why he has fought for decades cause most people don’t know they just know he is a socialist and he is grumpy and he is sincere I like that but he needs to convince more people and the way to do that is not by attacking the supporters of other candidates but by telling his story

  36. David, what are you thoughts on Andrew Yang's momentum? Yang is polling 4th in California, behind Warren. They have a lot of sway in the primaries, and that's considering the substantial momentum he has yet to build in the coming months. In yesterday's interview with The Hill, he admits he himself was a Bernie supporter, but he believes his policies will take us to those places in a much more effective way. He's the best person to speak to Bernie's base, as well as Trumps. And that's why he has the best chances at winning the election.

  37. Warren, Biden & Sanders need to retire. Funny how they have so much personal wealth & are not content. They are children in older bodies that have a need to be accepted by the masses.

  38. I think it’s time for Bernie’s campaign to start highlighting in interviews and debates the differences between Warren and himself. Better foreign policy.

  39. Warrens gain is because of Harris’ loss. Her support has largely transferred to Warren.
    But you won’t mention that because then you’d have to give credit to Tulsi. And Tulsi will wreck Warren too and expose her given the chance.

  40. Bernie has better policies at home and abroad. Bernie has a consistent record of pushing forward the bills. #Bernie2020

  41. No candidates stand a chance of getting republicans on board.
    Warren thinks we can put a bunch of smart people in a room and they’ll come out with a good solution and it’ll pass (somehow). This is borderline delusional.
    Bernie acknowledges that republican and blue dog obstructionism won’t stop just because you have a great plan, so that’s why he advocates going around the usual political process.

  42. If either of the socialist Bernie or socialist-leaning warren gets nominated, I am voting Trump. This will be my contribution to stopping socialism (Not an endorsement of Trump)

  43. Fuck Pocahontas! I’m a leftist and Bernie is the only compromise candidate; otherwise, I will vote for a socialist party candidate

  44. Bernie still gonna be my first choice in the primary, but I'd still prefer Warren way over Biden as the eventual nominee. Currently volunteering for Bernie in my state and maybe still would for Warren if she wins the nomination. It's not like I'd stay home on election day if Biden was the nominee, but I just can't see myself going above and beyond for an establishment candidate.

  45. Sanders will be almost a DECADE older than the previous "oldest President ever" (Trump, who's currently showing major signs of dementia)

    Most former Presidents didn't even LIVE to see their 80th birthday.. the birthday this guy would celebrate during his first year in office!

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