Do Latest Election Polls Mean ANYTHING?


scott here is the director of survey
research at the pew research center we will talk about the post-debate polls
will talk about the dates in general scott first thing to talk about is we’ve
seen in the last couple of q research center of presidential polls we saw present all bomb out with a substantial
national leader i think they got as high as eight oracle potentially even and you
you tell me if i’m wrong to now looking at mit romney plus for is that really believable that we have
actually seen a twelve-point sewing between president obama with the
president obama leading in that ronnie or is something else at play here it it is quite a swing i don’t think and my history of doing of presidential
pop also i’ve ever seen anything quite as sizable is this uh… you know we’ve we’ve done our
polling using the same method all your along and you know that you get what you get
when you do it and then you ask the question what what underlies this i think that in the in the case of the comparison that picture citing p_
mid-september poll that we did it showed uh… obon along with a eight point lead
own like we’ve got butters it we may have caught of honor and be
campaign at really the most positive time for him it was in fact shortly before the the
um… forty seven percent take came out but it was so that it was reflecting the
the strong bump that you’ve got mad at the convention about that a lot of other
all polling organization shown andy it was a particularly good time for
him the narrative and in the media was that uh… marami can’t do anything
right and he said you know he’s got it do something to turn his campaign around bike comparison i think that the poll
that we conducted over the weekend caught the electorate at the moment
about the greatest ballads permit rock bundy uh… since our poll came out on monday
showing the romney with a small allege among likely voters we have seen a number of other polls
that also show significant movement their those goals may not have shown as much movement from their previous
bolted to this one but all the polls are beginning to converge on a it
basically broke break even race so we’ll talk about that a little bit
uh… i just think that some of the emails i got it i would love for you to
address these directly are hated having scott kita ron that’s
great ask empowered they really uh… adjusting for having that plot
marami plus for polls so heavily uh… made up of older voters which tend
to go more for romney as well as and again correct me if i’m wrong here
showing president old bomber as only having fifty percent support from women which seems very very well
how do you would just for those things well you know the basic methodology of
the poll is that you conduct a survey ’em fung the general public to start
with you know we call and we take anyone who’s eighteen years
of age or older we then wait the davis so that he demographic characteristics of the
sample that we get all the general public match the census statistics so we get
the appropriate number of older people younger people with men women uh… african-americans latinos and the
like and so the sample that we start with is
a perfectly good mirror of the population and doesn’t look any
different from the polling that we get this summer that was so favorable to
obama but there is clear uh… things change
when you go to registered voters we’re seeing is significantly more um… republican friendly sample a few
if you will uh… we’ve seen these kinds of swings
in part b_ affiliation we got a lot of uh… phiri hang greek emails and calls
in uh… late july when we put out a paltry autobahn up by ten those calls
were coming from from people on the right saying that you’re cooking the
books your pulling extra democrats into your sample you know we’re getting we’re not getting
as much of that from from the left this time but we’re we are getting those
kinds of skeptical questions but one of the things that stood out to meet in the
poll given that we’re talking here about likely voters is how much more enthusiastic
republicans are in this poll compared with uh… a month ago one o’clock about that i mean when i
actually when i ask myself okay worth less than a month from this
election ken this many people really not
understand that brocco obama and mit romney represent vastly different ideals
broadly can be really be just saying you know what i was going to vote for obama but based
on a lukewarm debate performance i’m now going to vote for a candidate who is
completely different so many ways is it possible what we’re seeing is that as people become moral likely to vote as we close in on
the election and enthusiasm changes based on the waiting and that the
polling agencies do for how likely you are devoted that’s
really what we’re seeing is a shift that i think there’s defy definitely think
that that is a part of it that if u tell me in guitar uh… quite in our series of questions
that you burke uh… getting a lot of thought to the
campaign you’re following news about the campaign uh… that your absolutely
certain that you’re gonna vote you give yourself a ten on on a zero to ten scale
about turning out the you’re more likely to make it into
the final sample if democrats were feeling somewhat down
about uh… the president’s performance by the
other the other night weekend they’re not as likely to say
that they’re paying a lot of attention to the campaign right now ’cause it’s
not all that pleasant for them then fewer of
them are going to make it through through the screen and what we see stressed the people is these are factors that can change again
between now and election day well let’s talk about that we step back
from the day today how often does that happen historically
how often has it happened that eight different candidates ended up winning
the election than the one that was in the average of all polls ahead before
the debates started in other words how often do the debates change who ends up
winning it’s it’s very unusual parts very
unusual i would say the one example you could point to would be
reagan there wasn’t as much polling in nineteen eighty s six years now but jimmy carter had generally lead in polls uh… not all of the polls but many of
the polls up until the debate which of course was very late leaving very little
time for carter to to recover from not really a bad debate performance but
in many respects something maybe analogous to what we saw the other night
which is that reagan was able to across a list by
threshold of acceptability with a lot of people
who had very negative or at least gap practical views
of him and i think we’re on the you know was able to take that we can see that in
the internals in our poll we have but significant spike upwards the percentage of people who said that
romney relates well to the to ordinary people yeah who’ve found him to willing
to work with people on the other side these are all things that bit he didn’t
have before the debate that he was able to to pick up as a
result of of how he handled himself laughing touch on uh… quickly here what when we when we forget about the
national polling for a second look at those yuki swing states that really are
going to kind of building each candidate’s potential path to victory
has anything really changed drastically in terms of of the scenarios that get
one candidate to victory or another given and you know came bearing in mind
the importance of ohio to republican candidates and all of those things we
know now you know i’ve been following just like
you have the this wednesday polling that’s come out there was a uh… for
quite a prop today in fact uh… but giving us a little bit more insight and i think the bottom line from the
others is that they reflect the balances twelve but he
is a more modest and i think that’s understandable because people in the
swing state tonight live in when i lived in virginia at been bombarded uh… by
campaigning uh… for months much more so than
people in the rest of the country and as a result of that i think uh… attitudes are more firmly set in the swing states tend and
they were elsewhere where people may be more casual about the election though
and but they’re both is probably not gonna
make a difference one way or the other interesting alright so we’re gonna keep
watching those we will see what happens after the vp today and two more
presidential debates scott commuters director of survey
research at the pew research center thanks as always got thank you david

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Comments

  1. I think it's a temporary drop in enthusiasm, but I don't think it will be a victory for Mitt. I mean, who's going to vote for him? This country isn't made up of idiots and wealthy people.

  2. Mitt Romney is the epitome of WEASEL he is multiple choice and will say anything to make the room he is in clap for him. I still don't know what he stands firmly for besides being a conniver, trying to find the loophole in anything. Sure, all politicians have some tendencies to flip flop and try to please their crowd, but Mitt takes to to a whole new level, that is just comical.

  3. Yes, you're right, they don't care.

    That's why you just watched a 9 minute segment that they did about the latest polls and what they mean. It's also why, earlier, they went across the board with as many polls as they could to see whether it was accurate when they indicated that Obama was ahead.

  4. Funny, the polls were meaningless a week ago when Obama led romney by 8 point margins. But now that Romney is leading Obama by less than the margin of error on these polls this is a definitive assessment of the electorate? Here is the bottom line people: These polls do a shitty job of accurately representing the current opinons of America. And on top of that, these swing voters are some of the biggest retards on the planet and change their preferences back and forth with ease!

  5. To be fair, Romney was only talking in context of this election. He wasn't saying "fuck poor people" or anything, he was just saying that he wasn't gonna bother appealing to them to get elected.
    Nevertheless, it was quite demeaning.

  6. You've heard the old saying that says that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expect different results. ANYONE who thinks that things will be different if Obamas is re-elected really hasn't got a grip on reality. When you have a president who has no idea how a job is created you cannot expect him to create any. The mess in Washington is the result of poor leadership at the top. Mitt Romney will make needed changes beginning in late January.

  7. No, actually you're just a simple-minded fool. Using the race card invalidates anything you might opine. You speak of the "obstructionist Tea party congress", this is laughable since Obama had both houses of Congress his first two years!! He had majorities in both houses and could have passed anything he wanted. So your argument folds like a house of cards. Go suck an egg!!

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